about this areaThe Theory area contains articles and essays that address the various models used to describe Human Capital Sustainability (HCS).
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history of the wave - part 2Paul Kordis, September 2008 The long wave of change was briefly introduced in the previous article on wave history. This article will expand upon and explain the idea of the long wave and why we have recently reached a critical juncture in its progress.
The above figure illustrates the progress of the long (or life, or syntropy) wave so far. Its ascent was rather slow through wave one, then began to accelerate through wave two and to arc even more rapidly with the advent of waves three and four. However, in the United States the progress towards wave four was sidetracked and replaced by a nationwide political and economic effort to marshal our resources behind the prosecution of war and the ascent of creative finance. This was reflected in global figures as well. Ferguson (2008) notes:
As finance became America’s largest and most profitable industry, and wave four technologies were marginalized, the economy marched towards an impending bifurcation in which things would either get much better or much worse, but they would not and could not remain the same. At the same time, the long wave began to falter and move downward – drug to the backside of wave three, creating an unnecessary recovery lag, increasing the probability of permanently taking the low road of the bifurcation, and compounding the difficulty of reversing course and embracing and supporting wave four technologies. Until recently it seemed that the long wave would continue to curve upward towards an asymptote where change would approach an omega point and life would continue to evolve at an ever accelerated rate, primarily through the dissemination of powerful memes and phemes. If this observation were correct the technologies of wave four (bioengineering, nanotechnology, macro-robotics, machine cognition, new materials science, and new and exotic energy sources) would converge to produce products that could rapidly increase humanity’s quality of life by leaps and bounds and liberate the people of the earth from poverty, slavery, financial and resource dependence, and global warming, to name just a few. Beyond this the long wave would rapidly evolve towards wave five. In wave five, once things were fixed on this planet, humanity could be transported to other worlds in order to terraform and explore. Towards the peak of wave five humanity would quite likely discover methods for directly manipulating space and time – therefore opening up the universe in its entirety. From wave five forward it is quite difficult to predict what would come next. However, in the United States the more significant challenge is, rather than developing new and liberating technologies, the problem that wave four has been hijacked by war and the financial market. Over the past eight years America has not placed its resources behind the kind of research, education, and development that would forward the promise of wave-four. Rather, America’s full-on attention and considerable wealth have been dedicated to the prosecution of preemptive war and the expansion of financial instruments and markets – with a near-forced march in reverse to bolster the wave two industries that had purchased various and sundry parts of our national government (Kao, 2007; Osenton, 2004). Even manufacturing was marginalized in the wake of an explosion of complex financial derivatives that were guaranteed, or so it was said, to produce wealth. And that they did, for a very, very small number of people. However, a financial crisis at home and an international debacle abroad were the end result while the beneficial technologies of wave four simply continue to languish. With 20/20 hindsight it would appear that while the development of wave four technologies was replaced by a feeding frenzy of war and acquisition the average American was, as was their government, sinking deeper and deeper into debt. Public good has been replace by bailouts, tax breaks, subsidies, deregulation, financial shelters, favoritism and protectionism for the powerful and wealthy while household income and wealth has been siphoned off into a growing pool of debt and negative savings. The replacement of the technologies of wave four with finance, war, and debt has contributed to Americans working longer and harder, losing sleep, and going deeply into debt. To make things worse, while Americans risked rather than enhanced their quality of life the negative effects were rippling out to the rest of the world. It is time for America and Americans to take corrective action before it is too late. Electing a new president is a start, but only the first step towards repairing the damage done and putting humanity back onto the upward arc of the life wave. The good news is that other nations have taken up the banner of wave four and will likely ensure that humanity at large will take the ascending path of our current bifurcation. The real question is this: Will America wake up and again take the lead or will it be assigned the status of a mere runner up among world powers? referencesFerguson, N. (2008). The Ascent of Money: A Financial History of the World. New York: The Penguin Press. Kao, J. (2007). Innovation Nation: How America is Losing Its Innovative Edge, Why It Matters, and What We Can Do to Get It back. New York: Free Press. Osenton, T. (2004). The Death of Demand: Finding Growth in a Saturated Global Economy. Upper Saddle River, New Jersey: Financial Times Prentice Hall. Respond to this topic. Next topic: The Wiggle and the Pop |
founderPaul L. Kordis, PhD advisorsJames H. Banning, PhD Gary Geroy, PhD Ed Goodman, P.E., MSCE Bruce Hall, PhD M.L. Johnson, EdD, PhD David T. Moran, PhD Beverly Title, PhD
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